THE CHANGING FACE OF TRANSPORTATION, AS PREDICTED IN 2000

The U.S. Department of Transportation issued a report called The Changing Face of Transportation in 2000.

It recapped twenty-five years of changes in transportation, citing the Clean Air of 1970 as the kick-off of vehicle emissions standards and local plans for meeting national ambient air quality standards, and designated the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as the administrator of those plans. Further, the report stated that public research efforts after 1973 focused on alternative fuel technologies, though later in the report, it claimed that as long as oil remained cheap, there would remain only modest consumer demand for fuel-efficient vehicles (Changing Face of Transportation) .

Railroads were facing declining ridership in the 1970's, and many went bankrupt. Amtrak was created in 1970 as part of the divestiture process (in which a company sells or part of its assets through sale, exchange, closure or bankruptcy; Investopedia); Conrail was created from a network of bankrupt Eastern and Midwestern railroads. The maritime industry was also sinking further into decline. (Changing Face of Transportation)

According to the report, economic deregulation in aviation, trucking, inter-city buses, railroads, and the ocean shipping industry was the "centerpiece" of transportation policy from about 1975 to 2000. The subsequent increased competition allowed performance rates, fares, and quality of service to improve across all major transportation industries. Consequently, the report claimed that "Growth brought about by deregulation has produced unprecedented levels of mobility and contributed to the enormous economic prosperity of the last decade [the 90's]." Between 1975-2000, both passenger miles and economic production doubled. (Changing Face of Transportation)

While cheaper oil may have prevented increased demand for alternative fuels and more fuel-efficient cars, the 1970's energy crisis and increased competition with foreign automobile makers provided a catalyst for the automobile industry to begin redesigning their cars for fuel efficiency. Thus, the report stated that most measures of air pollution and emissions actually declined over the twenty-five years preceding its publication, even though energy use actually increased. (Changing Face of Transportation)

Despite huge increases in passenger miles, and the number of licenses and registrations issued, transit ridership grew from 7.4 billion passenger trips in 1993 to 9 billion in 1999, the highest level since 1964. (Changing Face of Transportation)

Several reasons were given for changes in the twenty-five years preceding the report, including: Democratization of Mobility, meaning "everyone can travel;" Aging of the Population, which will change travel patterns over time as more cars hit the road during off-peak hours; Changing Immigration, which may initially increase transit in metropolitan suburbs; Growing Affluence, which tends to increase auto availability, trips per household, and trip length; and Dispersal Technologies, which connect formerly remote areas to larger travel networks. Furthermore, the factors affecting change prior to the report were predicted to continue to play an important role in the scope of transportation and transit services. (Changing Face of Transportation)

Both The Changing Face of Transportation and multiple other sources pointed out technology's significant effect on future changes in transportation. For instance, "By 2025, travelers will have widespread, real-time access - any time, any place - to information of all types, such as transportation, availability, geographic location, and operating conditions over various segments of a trip" (Changing Face of Transportation). Consistent with the prediction, many transit websites now offer schedules formatted for mobile and hand-held devices, as well as customized RSS-feeds, e-mail, and text message alerts (1-Massachusetts Bay Transit Authority; 2-Ivan Berger, "Warnings a Little More Useful than 'Congestion Ahead,'" New York Times; 3-CommuterPage.com).

As most people prefer driving to transit, especially in less urban areas, technological improvements aimed at making public transportation more convenient might be a step in the right direction. In fact, in a June 2006 hearing before the Subcommittee on Highways, Transit, and Pipelines (of the House of Representatives' Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure), Richard Capka, Administrator of the U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, said he was "really excited about the intelligent transportation system advancements that have been made over the years, but even more so very recently. What we are seeing in terms of 5-1-1 type communications with drivers, is an ability to call up and kind of plot your course based upon the existing conditions of the day" (Highways, Transit, and Pipelines June 2006 hearing).

5-1-1 is a free service in which callers can receive free traffic information from their cell or land-line phones (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/).

While demographic shifts and technological advances will change the way people travel, the modes with which they travel will remain the same. The report suggested that high-speed, rail based ground travel would likely grow, citing Amtrak's new Northeast Corridor high speed train service called Acela, and the arrival of MagLev ("magnetic levitation") technology, which "in the next 25 years will present intercity travel times rivaling those of air travel" (Changing Face of Transportation).

At the time The Changing Face of Transportation was written, the Clinton-Gore Adinistration's Livable Communities Initiative saw transit as a way to reduce traffic congestion and air pollution, as well as the negative effects of urban sprawl, enhancing quality of life. Thus, in 1997, Bill Clinton signed the Amtrak Reform and Accountability Act, authorizing $2.3 billion in payments to make capital improvements to the rail system. Amtrak would use the funds to restructure service in the Northeast Corridor with the new Acela Express, join with states outside the Northeast corridor to provide high-speed rail development, re-emphasize customer service by offering service guarantees, and extend its franchise to other businesses such as mail delivery. The Act's goals were to reduce airport and highway congestion, improve productivity and safety, and increase rail ridership by connecting commuter rail and urban transportation systems (Changing Face of Transportation)

Thus, in 2000, the U.S. Department of Transportation predicted that population and economic growth would lead to more highway and air traffic congestion, and saw new technology and high-speed rail as important resources in reducing the negative effects of congestion.

Six years later, under a vastly different administration, Richard Capka reiterated the same themes. He said, "In many respects, our transportation system has become a victim of its own success. Our growing economy and standard of living have created a demand for travel and movement of goods that is increasingly more difficult to meet. Congestion is not an insurmountable problem, but we must embrace new solutions in order to make meaningful progress in reducing congestion." In addition to using technology more efficiently, Capka suggested privatizing construction and operation of transportation infrastructure, and focusing resources on improving the existing infrastructure instead building new roads (Highways, Transit, and Pipelines June 2006 hearing).

Clearly, the "face" of transportation is dynamic. Not only did it change dramatically during the last twenty-five years of the twentieth century, but with the advent of new technology and steady changes in population growth, it will continue to change. One of the challenges meeting government today is how best to manage those changes without sacrificing economic growth or environmental well-being.


Sources:

"5-5-1,” U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/trafficinfo/511.htm

Massachusetts Bay Transit Authority, http://www.mbta.com/rider_tools/mobile_t/

CommuterPage.com, http://www.commuterpage.com/area_alerts.htm

"Divestiture," Investopedia.com, http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/divestiture.asp

Hearing before the Subcommittee on Highways, Transit, and Pipelines of the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure of the House of Representatives. June 26, 2006.
http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=109_house_hearings&docid=f:30655.pdf

Ivan Berger, "Warnings a Little More Useful than 'Congestion Ahead.'" New York Times. October 26, 2005. http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/26/automobiles/autospecial/26berger.html

U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics. The Changing Face of Transportation. BTS007-007. Washington, D.C.: 2000.